Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-07 8.107018 8.980902 9.933658 11.053630 12.339315 13.775191 15.508671
2025-12-14 6.600172 7.686541 8.949846 10.540755 12.509570 14.891074 18.028185
2025-12-21 5.805079 6.989765 8.428674 10.329170 12.810021 15.991073 20.466466
2025-12-28 5.708046 7.091771 8.843324 11.266034 14.600022 19.135168 25.968599
2026-01-04 5.369434 6.833633 8.747335 11.492411 15.433712 21.061437 30.045838
2026-01-11 4.917125 6.375512 8.329683 11.214423 15.499373 21.864540 32.527685
2026-01-18 4.712272 6.228406 8.313198 11.485058 16.370301 23.944959 37.329187
2026-01-25 4.394855 5.896398 8.003376 11.286522 16.492263 24.850636 40.288788
2026-02-01 4.130833 5.618969 7.746609 11.136739 16.661593 25.833643 43.521787
2026-02-08 3.887065 5.352957 7.484400 10.950048 16.741829 26.659964 46.582831
2026-02-15 3.656544 5.091049 7.208492 10.714736 16.709913 27.273576 49.317491
2026-02-22 3.491953 4.917013 7.053440 10.658823 16.973228 28.441569 53.377609
2026-03-01 3.254343 4.625243 6.707061 10.276249 16.654668 28.541480 55.321217
2026-03-08 3.016831 4.321694 6.325061 9.806611 16.137815 28.204620 56.256250
2026-03-15 2.859155 4.133483 6.115036 9.613664 16.107872 28.820329 59.512162
2026-03-22 2.925549 4.300568 6.489076 10.467807 18.141858 33.944144 74.999216
2026-03-29 2.860534 4.252100 6.501863 10.673925 18.935648 36.560659 84.821870
2026-04-05 2.717255 4.068379 6.275087 10.420801 18.774339 37.021193 88.801814
2026-04-12 2.670863 4.041639 6.314323 10.667232 19.669936 40.052140 101.172675
2026-04-19 2.556367 3.895351 6.137308 10.486466 19.638935 40.866486 106.978185
2026-04-26 2.456592 3.769268 5.988872 10.350036 19.689948 41.891445 113.797713
2026-05-03 2.357948 3.640706 5.829225 10.179925 19.649089 42.678615 120.077012
2026-05-10 2.258637 3.506830 5.653374 9.965406 19.487394 43.129792 125.331743